Supply challenges dance with market demand, aluminum prices may hit high levels

　　Recently, Graham Kerr, CEO of South32, a diversified mining company in Australia, released a forecast for the trend of alumina and aluminum prices in the second half of the year, bringing new attention to the market.

　　Kerr pointed out that due to supply side risks, especially the severe seasonal rainfall in Guinea, which has a serious impact on transportation, he expects alumina prices to remain high in the second half of the year. Guinea, as an important producer of bauxite and alumina globally, has a significant impact on the global alumina market due to its production status. The transportation interruption caused by seasonal rainfall will undoubtedly exacerbate the supply tension in the global alumina market, thereby pushing up prices.

　　In addition, Kerr also mentioned the impact of the weakening of the US dollar on aluminum prices. As the main pricing currency for international commodity trading, the strength of the US dollar directly affects commodity prices. As the US dollar gradually weakens, aluminum prices denominated in US dollars will become relatively more attractive in the international market, which may stimulate more purchasing demand, especially from buyers in regions such as China and Europe. These regions often increase their procurement volume to reserve inventory or meet production demand when aluminum prices are relatively low.

　　It is worth noting that as the world's largest consumer of aluminum, China's market demand has a significant impact on global aluminum prices. After experiencing a series of energy crises and economic recovery, the demand for metals such as aluminum in Europe is gradually recovering. Therefore, some purchasing behaviors based on low prices in China and Europe are expected to further promote the rebound of aluminum prices.

　　Overall, Graham Kerr's forecast for alumina and aluminum prices in the second half of the year is based on multiple factors: supply side risks, expectations of a weaker US dollar, and market demand in regions such as China and Europe. These factors working together are expected to provide strong support for alumina and aluminum prices, enabling them to maintain a high or rebound trend in the second half of the year.